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EPOC Working Paper No. 13 / Work Package 01
2024 / Michel Grabisch, M. Alperen Yasar

Frequentist belief update under ambiguous evidence in social networks

2023 / Peter Ditlevsen, Susanne Ditlevsen

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Nature Communications, 14 Art. No.: 4254
EPOC Working Paper No. 12 / Work Package 01
2023 / Matthieu Bulté, Helle Sørensen

Medoid splits for efficient random forests in metric spaces

EPOC Working Paper No. 10 / Work Package 01
2023 / Tommaso Di Francesco, Cars Hommes

Sentiment-Driven Speculation in Financial Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs: a Machine Learning approach

EPOC Working Paper No. 07 / Work Package 01
2023 / M. Alperen Yasar

Power struggles and gender discrimination in the workplace

EPOC Working Paper No. 02 / Work Package 01
2022 /

Susanne Ditlevsen, Predrag Pilipovic, Adeline Samson

Parameters Estimation In Nonlinear Multivariatre Stochastic Differential Equations Based On Splitting Schemes

EPOC Working Paper No. 01 / Work Package 01
2022 /

Dongshuai Zhao, Zhongli Wang, Florian Schweizer-Gamborino, Didier Sornette

Polytope Fraud Theory

2021 / Konc T., I. Savin and J. van den Bergh

The social multiplier of environmental policy: application to carbon taxation

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 105
We analyze the effectiveness of environmental policy when consumers are subject to social influence. To this end, we build a model of consumption decisions driven by socially-embedded preferences formed under the influence of peers in a social network. This setting gives rise to a social multiplier of environmental policy. In an application to climate change, we derive Pigouvian and target-achieving carbon taxes under socially-embedded preferences. Under realistic assumptions the social multiplier is equal to 1.30, allowing to reduce the effective tax by 38%. We show that the multiplier depends on four factors: strength of social influence, initial taste distribution, network topology and income distribution. The approach provides a basis for rigorously analyzing a transition to low-carbon lifestyles and identifying complementary information and network policies to maximize the effectiveness of carbon taxation.
2020 / Bao, T., M. Hennequin, C. Hommes and D. Massaro

Coordination on bubbles in large-group asset pricing experiments

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 110, Art.-Nr. 103702
We present a large-group experiment in which participants predict the price of an asset, whose realization depends on the aggregation of individual forecasts. The markets consist of 21 to 32 participants, a group size larger than in most experiments. Multiple large price bubbles occur in six out of seven markets. The bubbles emerge even faster than in smaller markets. Individual forecast errors do not cancel out at the aggregate level, but participants coordinate on a trend-following prediction strategy that gives rise to large bubbles. The observed price patterns can be captured by a behavioral heuristics switching model with heterogeneous expectations.
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