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EPOC Working Paper No. 13 / Work Package 01
2024 / Michel Grabisch, M. Alperen Yasar

Frequentist belief update under ambiguous evidence in social networks

2024 / Daniel Torren-Peraire, Ivan Savin and Jeroen van den Bergh

An Agent-Based Model of Cultural Change for a Low-Carbon Transition

Journal of Artificial Societies ans Social Simulation, 27(1) 13
Meeting climate goals requires radical changes in the consumption behaviour of individuals. This necessitates an understanding of how the diffusion of low-carbon behaviour will occur. The speed and interdependency of these changes in behavioural choices may be modulated by individuals’ culture. We develop an agent-based model to study how behavioural decarbonisation interacts with longer-term cultural change, composed of individuals with multiple behaviours that evolve due to imperfect social learning in a social network. Using the definition of culture as socially transmitted information, we represent individuals’ environmental identity as an aggregation of attitudes towards multiple relevant behaviours. The strength of interaction between individuals is determined by the similarity in their environmental identity, leading to inter-behavioural dependency and spillovers in green attitudes. Our results show that the initial distribution of agent attitudes towards behaviours and asymmetries in social learning, such as confirmation bias, are the main drivers of model dynamics, helping to generate awareness of what roadblocks may appear to deep decarbonisation. To assess the impact of culture beyond a purely diffusive regime, we introduce green influencers as a minority of individuals who broadcast a green attitude. The greatest emissions reduction is achieved with the inclusion of culture, relative to a behavioural independence case, and with low confirmation bias. However, green influencers fail to achieve deep behavioural decarbonisation through solely voluntary action. We identify areas for further research regarding how culture, through inter-behavioural dependence, may be leveraged for climate policy.
2023 / Francesco Pietro Colelli, Ian Sue Wing, Enrica De Cian

Air-conditioning adoption and electricity demand highlight climate change mitigation–adaptation tradeoffs

Scientific Reports, Article number: 4413 (2023)
2023 / Francesco Pietro Colelli, Ian Sue Wing, Enrica De Cian

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

Energy Economics, Vol. 126
2023 / Peter Ditlevsen, Susanne Ditlevsen

Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

Nature Communications, 14 Art. No.: 4254
EPOC Working Paper No. 12 / Work Package 01
2023 / Matthieu Bulté, Helle Sørensen

Medoid splits for efficient random forests in metric spaces

2023 / Catarina Midões, Denis de Crombrugghe

Assumption-light and computationally cheap inference on inequality measures by sample splitting: the Student t approach

The Journal of Economic Inequality
EPOC Working Paper No. 11 / Work Package 03
2023 / Miquel Bassart i Loré

Green innovation policies in complex landscapes: An agent-based approach

2023 / Michel Grabisch, Antoine Mandel, Agnieszka Rusinowska

On the Design of Public Debate in Social Networks

Operations Research, Vol. 71 (2), 626-648
EPOC Working Paper No. 10 / Work Package 01
2023 / Tommaso Di Francesco, Cars Hommes

Sentiment-Driven Speculation in Financial Markets with Heterogeneous Beliefs: a Machine Learning approach

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