WP1 is dedicated to the development of advanced methods for statistical inference and for prediction in complex dynamic environments with endogenous regime changes and for the design and estimation of complex agent-based models (ABM). Approaches using hidden Markov models, state-space models and computational Bayesian methods are employed in this respect. Also, new conceptual approaches for modelling expectation formation process individual decision processes in complex environments are developed. The advances in this work package result in the development of ABMs with stronger conceptual and empirical basis and thereby contribute to model developments in WP2 and WP3. The methodological advances are complemented by applications in data rich use-cases with climate data, labor market data or complex consulting tasks.
In WP2 we employ network theory and agent-based simulation models for gaining a better understanding of the dynamic processes hindering quick and effective solutions to climate change and of the performance – in terms of effectiveness, equity and costs – of policies aiming to foster a low-carbon transition. In that respect processes of technological change in light of climate change and mitigation objectives, as well as policies aiming at a change in consumer behaviour in order to foster a low-carbon transition, are taken into account. The input of various partner organisations strongly concerned with analysis, insurance, consulting and policy advise related to climate change contribute to the strong focus of this work towards real world applicability.
In WP3 we analyse the appropriate role of public innovation policy under consideration of the complex structure of modern production networks and the rugged technological landscape. Computational models on different levels of aggregation as well as network theory are developed and applied for this analysis. We study the role of international value chains and of the interplay between public and private investors for the development of new technologies and examine how the combination of technological change with different types of policies affects regional development and market stability. Partner organizations provide practitioners’ perspectives on the processes of technological search and innovation.